ДА ЛИ ЈЕ ОПАДАЊЕ НЕМИНОВНО? – НЕКОЛИКО АРГУМЕНАТА ПРОТИВ

Драган Р. Симић

Драган Живојиновић

Сажетак

У овом раду аутори доводе у питање главне аргументе деклиниста у погледу неминовности опадања америчке моћи. Наводећи осам аргумената против деклинистичких учења, циљ рада је да се покаже да у међународним односима, поготово у погледу процене нечије моћи не постоји апсолутна сигурност да ће се нешто десити онако како то највећи број људи очекује. Конвенционалне мудрости често знају да поклекну пред непредвидивостима дешавања а детерминизам у међународним односима има много теже услове за живот него што је то случај у неким другим областима људског деловања.

Референце

1. Elliot, John, H., „Managing Decline: Olivares and the Grand Strategy of Imperial Spain“, in: Paul Kennedy, Ed., Grand Strategies in War and Peace, Yale Uni­versity Press, New Haven, 1991, pp. 87-104.
2. Ferguson, Niall, “Venice on the Hudson”, The Los Angeles Times, Monday, May 14, 2O07. izvor: internet, 05/14/07 http://latimes.com/2007/may/14/opinion/oe-ferguson14
3. Ferguson, Niall, “An Empire at risk”, Newsweek, December 7, 2009, pp. 26-30.;
4. Ferguson, Niall, “Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos”, Fo­reign Affairs, March/ April 2010, izvor: internet 01/08/10 http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24874.htm
5. 02/10/10 http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,867329,00.html
6. Friedberg, Aaron, “Same old songs: What Decinists (and Triumphalists) miss”, The American Interest, November / December 2009, izvor: internet: 16/08/10 http://www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/Friedberg_Declinist_AI.htm
7. Harding, Harry, „The Great Powers in Wonderland“, The National Interest, March­April 2008, pp. 51-52.
8. Harrison, Todd, Analysis of the FY 2011 Defense Budget, The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assesment, Washington, D. C.. 2010. Izvor: internet 31/08/10 http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/R.20100629.Analysis_of_the_FY/R.20100629.Analysis_of_the_FY.pdf
9. Herman, Arthur, The Idea of Decline in Western History, Free Press, New York, 1997
10. Huntington, Samuel, „The U. S. Decline or Renewal“, Foreign Affairs, Winter 1988/1989, pp. 76-96.
11. Inboden, William, „What is Power? And how much of it America have“, The Ame­rican Interest, Hollidays November/December 2009, pp. 15 27.
12. Кенеди, Пол, Успон и пад великих сила, Службени лист СРЈ, Београд, ЦИД, Подгорица, 1999.
13. Kennedy, Paul, „The Eagle has landed”, The Financial Times, February 2^nd, 2002, izvor: internet, 15/08/10 http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/JohnJudge/linkscopy/EagleLand.html
14. Kennedy, Paul, “Is this the end of the American Era”, The Sunday Times, Octo­ber 12, 2008, izvor: Internet, 12/03/08 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/ world/us_and_americas/article4926356.ece
15. Kennedy, Paul, „Rise and Fall“, The World Today, August-September 2010, pp. 6-9 Khanna, Parag, Second World Empires and influence in New World Order, Ran­dom House, New York, 2008
16. Khanna, Parag, “Waving goodbye to Hegemony”, The New York Times, 01. 2008. Izvor: Internet: 01/27/08, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?ei=5090&en=8261f868401501b5&ex=1359003600&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
17. Krepinevitch, Andrew, „National Security Strategy in an Era of growing Challen­ges and Resource Constraints”, Perspective, June 2010, p. 4. izvor: internet 05/07/10 http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/B.20100615.National_Security_/B.20100615.National_Security_.pdf
18. Luttwak, Edward, N., “From Homer to Unabomber: Review Essay”, Foreign Affa­irs, Vol. 76, No. 1, January/ February 1997, pp. 153158.
19. Mahbubani, Kishore, “The Case against the West”, Foreign Affairs, May/ June, 2008, pp. 111-124.
20. Mahbubani, Kishore, The New Asian Hemisphere The Irresistible shift of the Global power to the East, Public Affairs, New York, 2008.
21. Malleret, Thierry, and Oullier, Olivier, “Greece and the Power of Negative Thin­king”, The New York Times, July 30 2010, izvor: internet 31/07/10 http://www. nytimes.com/2010/07/31/opinion/31iht-edmalleret.html
22. Mandelbaum, Michael, The Frugal Superpower: America ’s Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era, PublicAffairs, New York, 2010
23. Martin, John, Romano, Denis, „Reconsidering Venice“, in: Martin, John, Romano, Denis, Eds., Venice Reconsidered The History and Civilization of an Italian City State 1297-1797, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimor, 2000, pp. 135.
24. Mintz, Alex, DeRouen Jr., Karl, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2010
25. Morris, Ian, „Why the West Rules – for Now excerpt”, izvor: internet, 05/01/11 http://us.macmillan.com/BookCustomPage.aspx?isbn=9780374290023#Excerpt
26. Murphy, Cullen, „Are we Rome: The Fall of an Empire and the fate of America“, The Washington Post, Friday, June 29, 2007, izvor: internet 29/06/07 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/chap1/arewerome.htm
27. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., Bound to Lead The Changing Nature of American Power, Ba­sic Books, New York, 1991.
28. Nye, Joseph, Jr., The Future of power-authors note, PublicAffairs, New York, 2011, izvor: internet 16/08/10 http://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/publicaffairsbooks-cgi-bin/display?book=9781586488918&view=note
29. Nye, Joseph, Jr., “The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective”, Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2010, izvor: internet 26/10/10 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66796/joseph-s-nye-jr/the-future-of-american-power
30. Patrick, Stuart, The G 20 and the United States: Opportunities for more effective Multilateralism, izvor: internet, 30/10/10 http://tcf.org/publications/2010/10/the-g20-and-the-united-states-opportunities-for-more-effective-multilateralism/pdf
31. Симић, Драган Р., Светска политика, Факултет политичких наука, Чигоја штампа, Београд, 2009
32. Симић, Драган Р., Живојиновић, Драган, „Од Спутњика до Ленова: шест та­ласа америчког деклинизма после Другог светског рата“, ГОДИШЊАК 2010, Факултет политичких наука, Београд, Година ИВ, Број 4, стр. 269­295.
33. Solman, Paul, „Interview with Paul Kennedy“, izvor: internet 15/08/10 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june10/kennedy_03-02.html?print
34. The CIA World Factbook, Military expenditures percent of GDP: izvor: internet 30/08/10 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2034rank.html;
35. “The New Shopping Superpower”, Newsweek, izvor: internet 20/1/11 http://www.com/2009/03/20/the-new-shopping-superpower.html
36. “The Redistribution of Hope”, The Economist, izvor: internet 17/12/10 http://www.economist.com/node/17732859
37. Willey, James, H., “Measuring Up: The strategies as strategy”, in: Roland Dannreuther, John Peterson, Eds., Security Strategy and Transatlantic Relations, Routledge, London, 2006, pp. 165-176.
38. Wingfield, Brian, “Foreign policy on a tighter budget: an interview with Michael Mandelbaum”, Forbes, izvor: internet 12/ 08/10 http://blogs.forbes.com/brianwingfield/2010/08/11/foreign-policy-on-a-tighter-budget/
39. Wohlforth, William, C., “Unipolar Stability: The Rules of Power Analysys”, Har­vard International Review, 29, no. 1, Spring 2007, izvor: internet 05/06/07 http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1611
40. Zakaria, Fareed, The Post-American World, W. W. Norton, New York, 2008
41. Zakaria, Farid, „The Future of American PowerHow America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest“, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008, Internet 25/04/08 http:// www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501facomment87303/fareed-zakaria/the-futureof-american-power.html?mode=print
42. Закарија, Фарид, Свијет након Америке, Фрактура, Загреб, 2009
43. Закарија, Фарид, Постамерички свет, Хеликс, Смедерево, 2009
44. Zakaria, Fareed, „When North Korea falls…“, The Washington Post, Monday, Oc­tober 18, 2010, A 19, izvor: internet 19/10/10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/17/AR2010101702608.html
45. Живојиновић, Драган, „Шест разлога због којих Кина неће бити следећа светска суперсила“, Годишњак 2009, година III, децембар 2009, Универзитет у Београду, Факултет политичких наука, Београд, 2009, стр. 437475.