Hatidza Beriša
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT – CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES
As a rule, the directions of development of the national security strategy are always aligned with vital national interests and modern achievements of society, which are imbued with modern challenges, risks and threats and available instruments of power. Monitoring global trends and the use of an adequate methodological approach enables the strategy to reflect a clear definition of national interests, ways of achieving them and the state's ability to achieve those interests using instruments of national power. Artificial intelligence through various forms of manifestation will significantly influence the development of future society. The implementation methodology will depend primarily on the needs and capabilities of the state. The goal of this work is to bring artificial intelligence closer to the professional public and to somehow place it in the focus of future considerations in the field of security and defense. Technology, which every day is becoming more and more present in all spheres of life, must find its role and place in strategic and doctrinal documents related to the defense of the state. Artificial intelligence must be integrated and operationalized as one of the starting points for creating a modern national security strategy, which is also the thesis of this expert work. The thesis clearly implies that the future national security strategy cannot be conceived without the concept of using artificial intelligence. The theoretical foundation of artificial intelligence is imbued in various scientific fields that primarily deal with automation and autonomous use of systems. Practical application found its basis in the gradual but comprehensive digitization of all spheres of life and society as a whole. From the point of view of national security, it is especially important to consider the impact in the development of autonomous weapon systems, the perspective of their use and the way they will shape modern armed conflicts.
THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION AS A GEOPOLITICAL “PIVOT” OF THE 21ST CENTURY
The subject of the paper refers to the analysis of the geostrategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region and the geopolitical movements and events in it at the beginning of the 21st century. The rise of China as a political, economic, and military power is the most important event in the transformation of the global international system, which, until recently, was sovereignly ruled by the USA. This geopolitical reality directed the world's attention from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, the economic growth of the region, in inseparable synergy with political and military strategic interests, represents a major challenge to the long-standing US dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. The transformation of China into a regional power with global aspirations has changed the structure of regional relations, undermining the recently unquestioned American hegemony in this part of the world. The paper will focus on the basic geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region, the new geopolitical “pivot” of the 21st century. The research used the content analysis method of the numerous relevant sources in which the Indo-Pacific region is considered, which includes a large expanse of water and land, where this specificity is reflected in the fact that the most significant “geopolitical game” today is related to the events in the waters of the South China Sea. The method of analysis and deduction in considering the character form and relationship of the rise of China as a political, economic, and military power and the events in the South China Sea indicate that the same could be the “maritime axis region” of the 21st century. Also, the method of synthesis and deduction was used in creating the most important views regarding the nature and manner of the mentioned connection and conditioning.
APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN MODERN WARFARE
Artificial intelligence is making rapid strides, and trying to predict its limits is an uncertain endeavor. While it opens up significant opportunities, it also presents challenges. AI has the potential to greatly enhance military capabilities, acting as a force multiplier. Military applications of AI can confer a competitive edge by expediting decision-making, revolutionizing the decision-making process, and improving command, control, and oversight capabilities. Similar to any groundbreaking technology, AI is poised to spark competition among powerful nations, potentially giving rise to security dilemmas, disrupting conflict predictability, and increasing the risk of escalation.
At its core, the pivotal question centers on the interaction between human operators and AI systems. In the realm of strategy, official state documents underscore the strategic significance of AI development and deployment in military endeavors. AI systems are likely to bolster military strategy, especially in forecasting and planning. Nevertheless, the human element in shaping strategy remains paramount, as it relies on instincts, creativity, and values. Nonetheless, there remains a concern that military personnel might excessively rely on AI for decision-making. In terms of military doctrine, the role of AI will likely be limited to assessment and aiding in doctrine revision. Considering that doctrine outlines a state's armed forces' purpose, values, and organizational culture, it is apparent that doctrine will play a pivotal role in defining how a state's military perceives and interacts with AI systems.
Artificial intelligence will play a substantial role in military planning, primarily due to its capacity to rapidly and accurately process complex and vast datasets. Even if AI systems are not granted decision-making authority, military planners and commanders may heavily depend on AI analyses and recommendations due to time constraints and the intricacies of wartime scenarios. Consequently, the line between AI that supports decision-making and AI that makes decisions itself could become less distinct. Concerning Rules of Engagement, they serve as a suitable framework for distinguishing the utilization of AI in specific conflicts and missions. In the realm of military orders, AI systems are expected to offer significant support in command and control functions, though they may not be entrusted with issuing orders independently. Nevertheless, practical challenges may arise in distinguishing between orders issued by algorithms and those given by commanders, potentially resulting in de facto AI-driven decision-making, akin to the planning stage.
Military structures, standards, and processes are likely to adapt in tandem with technological advancements. It is, therefore, imperative to proactively establish fundamental principles, values, and standards governing AI use, rather than reacting to technological developments, to avert unforeseen or undesirable consequences.
Future discussions and research on AI's role in military operations, as well as its integration into strategy, doctrine, operational plans, Rules of Engagement, and orders, should concentrate on the interaction between humans and machines, as this remains the crux of the matter. Striking an appropriate balance between AI's role in military preparation and execution and the effective management of military artificial intelligence is of paramount importance.
