Sanja Jelisavac Trošić
GEOPOLITICAL (NON) OPPORTUNITIES VS. “LATE” RESPONSE OF THE FOREIGN POLITICAL SERVICE OF NORTH MACEDONIA IN THE PROCESS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
In the case study of the foreign policy of North Macedonia, we can clearly see how global events, viewed from the perspective of geopolitical circumstances, do not always and as a rule have a direct impact on national internal and regional events in the Western Balkans, nor on the foreign policy actions of the Western Balkan six. In the paper, four determinants were singled out, on the basis of which explanations were provided, in a scientific and research context, why the foreign policy mechanism of North Macedonia "failed" in the process of achieving defined foreign policy goals, above all the basic goal - the country's accession to the European Union. At the same time, the lack of effectiveness of foreign policy action was not in a cause-and-effect relationship with wider European and international geopolitical circumstances.
The internal armed conflict in North Macedonia, which threatened to develop into a civil war between the dominant ethnic communities of Macedonians and Albanians, is the first indicator, i.e. the determinant of the explanation why the foreign policy mechanism of North Macedonia “failed” in the process of this country joining the European Union.
Another significant moment that was missed in the European integration process of Skopje, covers the period from 2006 to 2017 with two stages: the period leading up to the NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008 and the period after this summit, up to the change of power of former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, which has led to a multiple crisis within that country. The postponement of North Macedonia's accession to NATO in 2008, due to Greece's express refusal, with a focus on connecting the Macedonian nation with the heritage of the ancient Macedonians, with the simultaneous suspension of democratic capacities and principles that represent significant determinants in the process of joining the European Union, leads to missing out and moving away from the path accelerated European integration of North Macedonia.
As a third determinant, pervasive corruption was singled out, which affected all levels of government, so that the internal circumstances in North Macedonia actually “worked to the advantage” of the European Union, which at that time as a whole, and also individual member states of the Union, were also moving further away from the policy of enlargement as a mechanism in the process of European integration of both North Macedonia and the remaining countries of the Western Balkans.
The aforementioned challenges, which North Macedonia has been facing for almost thirty years, are not in a cause-and-effect relationship with external, whether regional, European or international, geopolitical circumstances and trends. We are talking about challenges that, regardless of the geopolitical dimension of the enlargement of the European Union from the point of view of Brussels and the member states of the European Union, significantly affect the dynamics of North Macedonia's accession to the European Union, that is, the effectiveness of the process of realizing this strategic foreign policy goal.
However, it is important to mention the foreign policy action of North Macedonia from the point of view of international law and the provisions of the UN Charter, which represents a strong fourth determinant in the context of the realization of North Macedonia's foreign policy goals. Here, it was possible to see how the international positioning of North Macedonia is conditioned to the detriment of the provisions and norms of international law. In this way, the principles of equality, sovereignty and political independence were placed in a subordinate position in relation to the factual political powers in interstate relations, directly harming the principle of self-determination, in the context of the identity attributes of North Macedonia and the Macedonian people.
In the period when geopolitical circumstances were favourable to North Macedonia, the opportunity for this country to become a member of the European Union was missed, thus achieving a strategic foreign policy goal, which in the context of the EU did not cause any consequences when it comes to the EU itself. However, the consequences for North Macedonia itself remained and only in the following period did the circumstances worsen and lead this country to a longer and more difficult path to accession. The future policy should be based on strong tactical tools, which are sufficiently flexible in relation to regional and international trends. First of all, North Macedonia needs a strong internal institutional infrastructure, which simultaneously ensures political, social and economic stability and predictability. In this way, it would be possible to realize the established goals of the foreign policy of North Macedonia.
THE UNITED STATES - CHINA TRADE WAR AND THE COLLAPSING OF THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
The aim of this paper was to research, describe and explain the causal link between the US-China trade war and the initiation of WTO reforms. Changes in US trade policy took place under Trump's leadership. Driven by the slogan "America First", the administration introduced measures that have increasingly began to resemble a trade war against China. With reference to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 tariffs were imposed on a wide range of imports from China, in response to alleged threats to national security and unfair trade practices. The trade facilitation, predictability and freedom of trade flows have been compromised by these actions, and thus the basic WTO postulates.The lack of progress in the Doha trade talks and the overload of dispute settlement systems are factors that have already weakened the WTO's international reputation. US protectionist measures have further eroded the organization's credibility. As a result, there is a rise in protectionism in other WTO member countries as well. Also, the US has been blocking appointments and reappointments of its members of the Appellate Body for over a two years, which has led to the cessation of work of this body and the crisis of the dispute settlement mechanism.Trade war has led officials to come forward on the need for thorough WTO reform. When it came to critical mass, formal proposals for reform began. Consultations have also started between the leading Member States. Adopting a comprehensive reform program will be very difficult, given the WTO's decision-making mechanism. However, no matter what the results, this process has begun and the problems can no longer be ignored. An open question for future research is whether the WTO will successfully reform and thereby prevent the emergence of new trade wars, or whether we are pursuing a future without multilateral trade rules, with the right of the strongest.
